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Heat Risk and Resilience Assessment in the UK, 2022
Creator
Mehryar, S, London School of Economics
Study number / PID
857640 (UKDA)
10.5255/UKDA-SN-857640 (DOI)
Data access
Open
Series
Not available
Abstract
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, yet many countries remain inadequately prepared to manage their impacts. Existing heat risk plans and responses often fail to account for the complex interdependencies among the various causes and impact pathways of heat waves.
Effective planning requires a system-level understanding of these interdependencies to identify strategic entry points for action. This research employs a participatory system mapping approach to explore the interconnections among causes, impacts, and response actions during the UK heatwave events of summer 2022. Cognitive maps were developed shortly after the events, incorporating input from 38 stakeholders across sectors involved in the heatwave response. These maps informed a forensic disaster analysis designed to provide a holistic understanding of the heatwave’s causes, impacts, and adaptation measures.
By analysing the interdependencies among these factors, we identified cascading effects and amplifiers that significantly intensified heat risk in the UK. Notably, we find that the primary heatwave impacts were often indirect, emerging or worsening due to cascading effects such as wildfires, drought, transportation disruptions, and the overburdening of first responders. In many cases, adaptation measures were reactive, addressing isolated, short-term impacts, while proactive, system-level approaches tackling interconnected impacts and root causes—such as vulnerable buildings, at-risk populations, and behavioural barriers—were largely absent. Additionally, we found notable variations in heat risk perceptions among groups. While individual sectors displayed a limited understanding of the broader heat risk system, a system-level perspective emerged through the aggregation of cognitive maps. The implications for adaptation research and policy are discussed.The Place-Based Climate Action Network (P-CAN) seeks to strengthen the links between national and international climate policy and...
Terminology used is generally based on DDI controlled vocabularies: Time Method, Analysis Unit, Sampling Procedure and Mode of Collection, available at CESSDA Vocabulary Service.
Methodology
Data collection period
01/10/2022 - 15/12/2022
Country
United Kingdom
Time dimension
Not available
Analysis unit
Individual
Universe
Not available
Sampling procedure
Not available
Kind of data
Software
Data collection mode
The method applied in this study is Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM), a visual representation of human mental models. The technique used to develop these maps involved semi-structured interviews. A total of 38 interviews were conducted with stakeholders involved in responding to the UK heatwaves during the summer of 2022.During the online interviews, researchers created Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) for each stakeholder using the MentalModeler online platform. These maps were continuously sense-checked and validated by participants during the interviews. A total of 38 FCMs were created, which were later combined and analyzed using the FCMapper and Visone software.At the beginning of the project, stakeholder mapping was conducted to identify key stakeholders involved in heat response across London, Manchester, Yorkshire and Humber, and at the national (England) level. Out of 68 stakeholders identified and contacted, 38 responded and participated in the interviews.The attached documents include individual and combined FCM files, an Excel sheet containing all FCM nodes and their network analysis outcomes, participants' information, and consent forms. Please note that audio recordings and interview transcripts cannot be shared due to the data management protocols established for this project and outlined in the consent form. The maps developed and sense-checked by participants are the primary outcomes of the interviews, while the recordings and transcripts were primarily utilized for a separate research project derived from this work.
Funding information
Grant number
ES/S008381/1
Access
Publisher
UK Data Service
Publication year
2025
Terms of data access
The Data Collection is available to any user without the requirement for registration for download/access.