Study title

The study deals with the first 25 years of German monetary policy from 1948 to 1973 in the so called “Bretton Woods Era”. There is a focus on the attitude of the banks of the German states and on the German Central Bank. This attitude is presented in two different ways: (1) descriptive presentation of intentions, measures and impact of the behavior of the central bank based on annual and monthly reports of this institution; (2) economic time series analysis especially “cointegration analysis” which helps to identify and quantify determinants and impacts of monetary policy. First, an overview over monetary policy and economic development between 1948 and 1973 is given connected with some conceptual annotations on monetary policy. Next a traditionally used investigation method of Germany economic history will be presented using a qualitative historical approach. The quantitative econometric approach illustrates a so far widely unattended aspect of German economic historiography. In the field of regression analysis of time series, econometric research produced new results. These methodological advances are applied in the regression analysis of this study. It will be shown that the formulation of a structural error correction model for the monetary area of the German Economy is able to confirm the theoretical statements on monetary policy in a small open economy with fixed exchange rates. Lists of variables - Industry production - Real income - Population - Relative income level of the states compared to the USA - Real exports - Real investments - Gross domestic product-Inflator - Money supply - Real GDP - Price index of costs of living - Prices of consumer goods - Wholesale prices - Prices of export goods - DGP-deflator - Overnight rate - Monthly allowance rate - Ninety days´ loan rate - US-American money market rate - US-American price index - Nominal DM/Dollar-exchange rate - German import prices index - Weighted wholesale price index from 7...