Study title

Growth fluctuations, like short-term cyclical fluctuations, can be measured by various indicators. In the 19th century, the economic situation was evaluated mainly on the grounds of easily observable data on prices. Current research, in contrast to this, measures the economic cycle principally by the national product, apart from other multivarious indicators. In modern business cycle research, this method is preferred because it comprises the overall economic activity of a country, whereas diffusion-related indices only regard parts of a national economy. This study by Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich completes Walter G. Hoffmann`s calculations on the origin of gross value added (cf. Hoffmann W. G., 1965: The Growth of the German Economy Since the Middle of the 19th Century. Berlin: Springer). The principal item of Hoffmann`s study is the estimation by origin on the basis of sub-sectoral physical quantities of production and sub-sectoral employment figures. This estimation by origin results in the best data quality because the economic output of numerous sectors was recorded already from the middle of the 19th century on. Nevertheless, figures on the production of the tertiary sector are almost completely missing. In this respect, the calculation of the index of industrial production constitutes the main problem, and Hoffmann, among others, assumes that the relative sub-sectoral labour productivities had remained constant during the years 1850 and 1959. Moreover, Hoffmann utilises the added value structure of nine economical sectors in 1913 as a constant factor for the aggregation of sector indices for the production in the German economy. In contrast to that, Holtfrerich relies on a calculation method using a streamlined added value structure for each year in the entire period between 1850-1913 to determine the growth rates in the different sectors. Thereby, the author aims at aggregating information on the annual growth rate for the German national economy. It is...