2026-05-14T06:51:51Z https://datacatalogue.cessda.eu/oai-pmh/v0/oai

0069cbac39e472e7ee03982ee8b5b359798d431b37124fa51f0f2aef486feeeb 2025-06-17T01:08:32Z language:enopenaire_data

Replication Data for: Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy Replication Data for: Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy doi:10.11587/X8UZ60 Sohlberg, Jacob Branham, J. Alexander n/a AUSSDAThe Austrian Social Science Data Archive Public opinion pollsElectionsElection dataVoting behaviour Elections Although polling accuracy increases throughout the election, polls are always at least a little wrong on election day. In this article, we attempt to understand how characteristics of particular elections may make them harder (or easier) to predict. In particular, we focus on estimating the impact of voter turnout, electoral change, and vote buying on polling error. We find support for two of the three hypotheses. There is little evidence that voter turnout affects polling error. However, polling errors tend to be higher where there have been large changes in parties’ vote share from the previous election. We also find that higher prevalence of vote buying may be associated with larger polling errors. 1942-11-032013-09-29 ArgentinaAustraliaAustriaBelgiumBrazilBulgariaCanadaChileColombiaCroatiaCyprusCzech RepublicDenmarkEcuadorFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceIcelandIrelandItalyJapanMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayParaguayPeruPhilippinesPolandPortugalRomaniaSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaKorea, Republic ofSpainSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited StatesVenezuela, Bolivarian Republic of Time unit Pre-electoral polls in democratic countries Numeric Longitudinal Other Compilation/Synthesis Other For more Information please visit AUSSDA's web page https://data2.aussda.at/oai doi:10.11587/X8UZ60 2023-03-16T11:53:19Z ddi:codebook:2_5